Dubai Property Market Overview

Despite a 10% decline in total sales value and a 12% drop in transaction volume, the market sustains momentum through a 10% rise in price per sqft, signaling selective demand favoring higher-value inventory. Primary market activity remains resilient with stable sales value and only a marginal volume contraction, highlighting sustained investor confidence in new developments. In contrast, the resale segment faces significant pressure, with a 28% value decline and a 30% volume drop despite a moderate price gain; this divergence implies that price increases are not broadly supported by transaction activity, risking price corrections if liquidity tightens further.

Mortgage-backed transactions reveal critical shifts: an expanding mortgage value of AED 96.5 billion (+26%) paired with a falling mortgage volume (-10%) suggests larger loan amounts per deal, reinforced by a rising LTV ratio to 74.4%. This dynamic points to more leveraged purchases but fewer buyers, contributing to the volume contraction. Cash sales dominate at 67% of deals but are declining, while mortgage transactions, though fewer, grow by 14% YoY, potentially indicating a shift toward financed transactions as affordability pressures mount. Investors should prioritize primary developments with stable value metrics and increasing leverage trends, while exercising caution in resale assets where price gains lack transaction support, to avoid overexposure to potential market corrections.